2023: Tsunami looms as senator return bids fail


According to the results of party primaries held so far for 109 senatorial seats, around 60 senators have lost bids to return, reports TAIYE ODEWALE

Seasonal turnover
For both houses of the National Assembly since 2003, when the first general elections were held under democratic governance in what is now the fourth republic, there has been a high turnover of lawmakers after each successive Assembly, with returns falling below of 50% of the members of a session that is ending.

Reasons for high turnovers
The reasons for the high turnover of members of the Senate or the House of Representatives, as happened at the end of the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th National Assembly, are basically four.

One is the decision of serving legislators to aim for higher political position, particularly the governorship of their states, two, the effect of zoning arrangements of the senatorial district a legislator hails from, three, losing the return ticket offer at the primary level and four, lose to the general elections. .

Senate as a case study

Since 2003, as noted, there has been a high turnover of Senate members who have not returned after serving one term at the end of a session.

For example, in the immediate past 8th Senate, approximately 63 of the 109 senators who served between June 2015 and June 2019 were unable to return to the current 9th Senate due to the four factors previously stated.

Deterioration scenario emerging in the 10th Senate

The current 9th Senate is going through the realities on the ground and in particular based on the results of the primary elections conducted by the two main political parties, namely the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). ) for senatorial candidates of the 109 Senate seats; will have the fewest returnees in history.

Indeed, according to the results of these primary elections, nearly 60 senators are excluded from the candidacies for the next Senate in the 10th National Assembly.

State-by-state analysis
Analytically based on state-by-state assessments, in the North West, the three senators from Jigawa State, namely Hadejia Hassan Ibrahim, Sankara Danladi Abubakar and Mohammed Sabo Nakudu are not returning.

They all ran for their state’s gubernatorial tickets with the APC and lost to the current Deputy Governor, Alhaji Umar Namadi and invariably paved the way for the APC to choose new candidates for the three senatorial seats.
As it was in Jigawa, it is therefore in Katsina State where none of the three incumbent senators, namely Ahmed Baba Kaita, Bello Mandiya and Abdullahi Barkiya Kabir, got a ticket home from their party ( PCA).

For Kaita, the quest for state governorship saw him quit the party a few months ago for the PDP while Mandiya and Barkiya lost in the party-led senatorial primary elections last Saturday.
In Zamfara State, within the same North West geopolitical zone, of the three senators who entered the 9th Senate in June 2019, only one secured a return ticket to participate in the 2023 general elections in view of a possible return to the upcoming 10th Senate. .
While Senator Sabi Ya’u (Zamfara North) managed to secure a return ticket, Senator Lawali Hassan Anka (Zamfara West) sacrificed his for former state governor Abdulaziz Yari who is pacified by State Governor Bello Mattawale with Senator Kabiru Marafa settled with the central senatorial ticket of Zamfara, a seat occupied by Senator Mohammed Hassan before he resigned as Deputy State Governor he a few months ago.

In Kebbi State, only Senator Bala Ibn Na ‘Allah (Kebbi Sud) got a return ticket out of the three sitting senators in the state. Senate leader Yahaya Abdullahi (Kebbi North) lost in the primary election conducted on Saturday while Senator Adamu Aliero (Kebbi Central), withdrew from the race and even quit the party over the alleged manipulation of the whole process by the Governor of the State, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu.

In Kaduna State, only Senator Suleiman Abdul – Kwari (Kaduna North) got a return ticket from his party (APC), while Senator Uba Sani (Kaduna Central) opted for the governorship of the state on the APC platform while Senator Danjumah La’ah (Kaduna South), lost the primary election led by his party (PDP).
However, in Kano State, although Senator Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano Central) dropped out of APC for NNDP, he is sure to get a ticket there while Senators Kabiru Gaya (Kano South) and Jibrin Barau (Kano North) got tickets returned from APC.
A similar scenario unfolded in Sokoto State between the three sitting senators who all got return tickets. The senators are Aliyu Wammakko (Sokoto North), Gobir Ibrahim Abdullahi (Sokoto East) and Ibrahim Abdullahi (Sokoto South) who defected from the PDP to the APC a few months ago.
In the North-Central geopolitical area, particularly in Plateau State, none of the three sitting senators, namely Prof. Nora Ladi Daduut (South Plateau) Dimka Hezekiah (Central Plateau) and Gyang Istifanus Dung (North Plateau) , only got a return ticket from their parties.
In Kogi State, Senators Smart Adeyemi (Kogi West) and Yakubu Oseni (Kogi Central) are not returning to the Senate with only Senator Jibrin Isa (Kogi East) getting a return ticket.
Also in Niger State, while the fate of Senate Bima Enagi (Niger South) is yet to be known, Deputy Senate Whip Aliyu Sabi Abdullahi (Niger North) lost in his bid to secure a ticket. round trip but Senator Sani Musa (Niger East) obtained a return ticket from the primary election conducted last Saturday.
In Nasarawa State, only Senator Tanko Al-Makura (Nasarawa South), appears to be returning as Senator Adamu Abdullahi, National Chairman of APC (Nasarawa West), resigned from the Senate while Senator Godiya Akwashiki ( Nasarawa North), was still struggling to get a return ticket at the time of this report.
However, in Benue and Kwara states respectively, two of the three state senators got returned tickets. Those who did not get return tickets are Ibrahim Yahaya Oloriegbe (Kwara Central) and Orker – Jev Emmanuel Yisa (Benue North West).
In the Northeast geopolitical zone, starting with Bauchi State, all three sitting senators lost.
While Senator Haliru Jika (Bauchi Central) lost indirectly contesting the gubernatorial primaries without success, the other two senators, namely Lawal Gumau (Bauchi South) and Bulkachuwa Adamu Muhammad (Bauchi North), lost in the gubernatorial primaries. senatorial primaries organized on Sunday.
In Taraba State, only Senator Isa Shuaibu Lau (Taraba North) secured a return ticket while Senators Emmanuel Bwacha (Taraba South) and Yusuf Abubakar Yusuf (Taraba Central) went to the contest for governor won later by Bwacha.
In Yobe State, Senate Speaker Ahmad Lawan is not returning due to his presidential ambition which caused APC to relinquish the ticket for Yobe North Senate District to a new person on Saturday.

But former state governor Senator Ibrahim Gaidam (Yobe East) and Senator Bomai Ibrahim Mohammed (Yobe South) got return tickets from APC.
In Gombe State, Senator Amos Bulus Kilawangs (Gombe South) lost in his bid to return to former Senator Joshua Lidani while Senators Mohammed Danjuma Goje (Gombe Central) and Alkali Saidu (Gombe North) won return tickets from APC.
A similar scenario unfolded in Adamawa State, where Senators Ishaku Elisha Cliff Abbo (Adamawa North) and Binos Dauda Yaroe (Adamawa South) secured return tickets from APC and PDP respectively, while that Senator Aishatu Ahmed Binani (Adamawa Central) is supporting the governorship of the state, having emerged as the APC’s guber candidate.
Two senators also secured return offers from Borno State as seen in the results of the APC senatorial primaries which declared Senator Shettima Kashim (Borno Central) and Ali Ndume (Borno South) as the winners while Senator Abubakar Kyari (Borno North), being the National Vice President of APC (North), did not seek a return.
In South West Ondo State, a similar pattern of high turnover is reflected with none of the three senators in office i.e. Deputy Head of Senate Ajayi Boroffice (Ondo North), Ayo Akinyelure (Ondo Central) and Nicholas Tofowomo (Ondo South), back .
In Lagos State, only Senator Tokunbo Abiru (Lagos East) is returning due to the political base being moved to Ogun West by Senator Olamilekan Adeola of Lagos West and the voluntary stoppage of the contest by Senator Oluremi Tinubu ( Central Lagos).
In Ogun State, Senator Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun Central), is not making a return due to his presidential ambition while Senator Lekan Mustapha (Ogun East) was ticketed back. For Ogun West, Senators Olamilekan Adeola and Tolu Odebiyi separately claim the ticket.
In Oyo State, Senators Abdulfatah Buhari (Oyo North) and Lekan Mustapha (Oyo South) secured return tickets, but Senator Teslim Folarin (Oyo Central) did not make a return offer because of the governor’s ambition.
However, in Ekiti and Osun states, available results from the primaries conducted by APC and PDP indicate that all six incumbent state senators were granted tickets back.
In the South-South geopolitical zone, only Senator Clifford Ordia (Edo Central) got a return ticket out of the three sitting senators from Edo State.
In Cross River State, a similar scenario unfolded with Senators Sandy Onor (Cross River Central) and Gershom Bassey (Cross River South) not making return offers due to gubernatorial ambitions.
A similar trend has unfolded in Delta State where Vice Senate Speaker Ovie Omo – Agege (Delta Central) and James Manager (Delta South) are out of return offers due to Governor ambition, leaving Senator Peter Nwaoboshi (Delta North) with a bid to return to the 10th Senate.
Only Senator Barinada Mpigi (Rivers South East), got a return ticket to Rivers State like Eyinkenyi Akon Etim from Akwa Ibom State.
However, in Bayelsa State, all three serving senators have been granted return tickets.
In the southeast geopolitical zone, only Senator Chukwuma Frank Ibezim of Imo North got a return ticket out of the three senators based on Imo State. Ezenwa Francis (Imo East) was defeated in the primary while Rochas Okorocha (Imo West) opted for the presidential race.
However, while the fate of the three incumbent senators from Ebonyi State is still up in the air due to inconclusive primaries conducted in the three senatorial districts by the PDP, two of the incumbent senators from Abia, D ‘Anambra and Enugu respectively, got return tickets just as the only senator from the Federal Capital Territory, Philip Tanimu Aduda, got a return ticket.
In total, at the primary election level alone, 58 out of 109 senators are out of the race for the 10th Senate in 2023, some of whom will not even make it to the general election, clearly showing signs of a tsunami when it comes to the numbers of senators who won’t come back are worried.

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