A hurricane season in 1997?

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Last week, NBC/MSNBC weatherman Bill Karins posted an anecdote Tweeter noting that the last time we had an August without named tropical storms was in 1997! Now that our models can actually arrive at the end of the month, it should be noted that we could indeed arrive at September before a named tropical storm or hurricane appears in the Atlantic Basin. In saying this, the National Hurricane Center slapped a 20% development chance on an Atlantic location:

20% chance of developing the next five days. Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

With this in mind, the US model does not really develop the area for several days due to wind shear aloft ahead of it. It is only in September that the depression strengthens off the American coast, then a few other systems follow it:

Note that the lows in the Atlantic are not strengthening next week. Courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

The European agrees with the same predictions, even if the very end of the month could creak in some developments:

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courtesy weathermodels.com

So how did DID 1997 go? Before the end of July, we had 4 named tropical systems and a depression including one – Hurricane Danny – in the gulf that year. Interestingly, we had a minor development in June and July this year. No storms were recorded in August 1997, followed by just one in September and two in October! A quiet year indeed, especially since all but Danny remained across the Atlantic:

courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

So from a named system point of view, August could be pretty quiet. However, from today through Wednesday we are closely monitoring a subsiding front which could cause flooding in our area. We don’t need a tropical system to cause trouble, so keep an eye on the skies this week!

Franc

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