Last week, NBC/MSNBC weatherman Bill Karins posted an anecdote Tweeter noting that the last time we had an August without named tropical storms was in 1997! Now that our models can actually arrive at the end of the month, it should be noted that we could indeed arrive at September before a named tropical storm or hurricane appears in the Atlantic Basin. In saying this, the National Hurricane Center slapped a 20% development chance on an Atlantic location:
With this in mind, the US model does not really develop the area for several days due to wind shear aloft ahead of it. It is only in September that the depression strengthens off the American coast, then a few other systems follow it:
The European agrees with the same predictions, even if the very end of the month could creak in some developments:
So how did DID 1997 go? Before the end of July, we had 4 named tropical systems and a depression including one – Hurricane Danny – in the gulf that year. Interestingly, we had a minor development in June and July this year. No storms were recorded in August 1997, followed by just one in September and two in October! A quiet year indeed, especially since all but Danny remained across the Atlantic:
So from a named system point of view, August could be pretty quiet. However, from today through Wednesday we are closely monitoring a subsiding front which could cause flooding in our area. We don’t need a tropical system to cause trouble, so keep an eye on the skies this week!
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