Critical forecast tool updated just in time for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season



A crucial tool meteorologists use to forecast hurricanes is updated just in time for the onset of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

The University of Wisconsin announced the significant upgrade to the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) and says it will use full resolution images from weather satellites, better identification of the location of the eye of the storm and the ability to analyze hurricanes occurring outside the tropics.

ADT was developed by researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS).

The tool, used by forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center, estimates the intensity of tropical cyclones and indicates when the storm might strengthen using infrared satellite images. Its ability to warn of tropical cyclones likely to approach coastal areas benefits emergency planners who need to issue evacuation orders for residents.

“The ADT itself is not a prediction tool, but it does help describe the current state of tropical cyclone intensity, which provides the critical starting point for forecaster and model-based predictions. future trajectory and intensity”, said Senior Scientist Christopher Velden, who leads CIMSS’s Tropical Cyclone Group.

ADT is being upgraded just in time for the start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

It was first developed in the mid-1990s by NOAA researcher Vernon Dvorak as a method for estimating hurricane intensity. It was not until the mid to late 2000s that new technical advances were implemented in the algorithm, and ADT was implemented and supported by NOAA.

There continue to be advancements in satellite meteorology that are helping to revolutionize the field and further improve the accuracy of the ADT.

“For us, the goal is to provide a tool that allows forecasters to do their job better,” said Tim Olander, researcher at CIMSS. “We have always tried to support them by integrating their recommendations and ideas to improve our algorithms.”

A link to real-time ADT estimates can be found here.

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