“It’s a red tsunami” and other famous last words in politics

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The 2022 election bet I made with my gamer friend, Frankie Four Eyes, was for dinner and Casey’s Kolsch at Mac and Bob’s, the famed restaurant in Salem.

A notorious conservative who considers Attila the Hun too “woke,” Frankie would eat at my expense if Republicans got control of both houses of Congress. Yours truly would prevail if the Democrats retained the House and Senate. Any other result, the bet was open.

We still don’t know if there is a winner. On Friday morning, it emerged that the GOP had secured a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives. But the US Senate is another story. There, two contests remain undecided – Nevada and Georgia.

Republicans must win both to gain control of the Senate; Democrats only need one. And if Nevada goes to the GOP, the question of control will not be decided until the Senate second round on December 6 in Georgia.

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Either way, Republicans appear to be the big non-winners of 2022, largely because of expectations that they would score easy wins in both chambers. A jubilant text Frankie sent me Tuesday morning, hours before the polls closed, embodied precisely that notion.

“If the betting markets are right, it’s a red tsunami,” he wrote. (Frankie totally believes that game odds are the best indicator, much like the wisdom of the crowds, because players are putting their own money on the line.)

I answered: “Hillary 2016”.

(The same betting markets gave Clinton an over 80% chance of winning the White House on election morning in 2016. I remember because that day I put all my money on her – and I I lost, ooof!)

“Reminds me of the stages of death,” Frankie replied. “You haven’t reached the acceptance stage yet.”

To dull his joy, I fired a low blow.

“On the bright side, Bitcoin is looking strong at $18,367,” I texted back. That was Tuesday’s price.

(Frankie bought Bitcoin after Joe Biden was elected, supposedly as a hedge against any additional taxes he would be required to pay under a Democratic administration. The strategy seemed to inflate through November 2021, and Frankie has jubilee as the cryptocurrency soared above $64,000.)

“It’s cruel,” he replied. (As of Friday afternoon, Bitcoin had fallen below $16,900.)

At least the crack calmed him down for the rest of the day. Our repartee resumed on Tuesday evening.

“Herschel looks strong in GA!” I sent a sarcastic text at 7:17 p.m. At that time, early returns sent Democrat Raphael Warnock up from 63% to 30%.

“Seriously?” Franky replied

“[Herschel’s] only more than 2 to 1,” I replied. “I would say 30% is strong for him, actually. Higher than his IQ!

Frankie changed the subject.

“News on [Roanoke] City Council?” he asked.

I noted that former Mayor David Bowers was running seventh out of nine candidates seeking three seats.

“That’s good news,” Frankie replied.

For the city, maybe. But we had not bet on the return of Bowers.

Knowing Frankie, he had been making fun of him all day, to be used against me on Tuesday night. But it turned out there was some valuable good news to tease. He gave it a valiant effort, though.

“[Republican Don] Boduc will win [in New Hampshire]Frankie tried. “Huge stake in NH [GOP] pregnant “.

I don’t know what Frankie was smoking. Bolduc, who Democrats backed in New Hampshire’s GOP primary because he was the weakest Republican candidate, lost nine percentage points to incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan. Not much was going Frankie’s way.

Other than Bowers’ loss, the only bright spot for Frankie was Florida, which was pretty much a GOP sweep. It happened early Tuesday evening.

“Effin’ Florida!” I texted him.

“It’s the new Utah,” he replied.

“That’s where Jerry Jr. and Becki are going to chase pool boys,” I shot back.

At one point, for a brief moment, Republican Herschel Walker took the lead in Georgia. Frankie gleefully directed me to RealClearPolitics.com, which he followed.

But within three minutes of calling the website, Warnock was back on top. That was pretty much the story of Frankie’s night.

At one point, I texted her, “Are you drowning in the red wave yet?

“Ripple,” was his one-word response.

“The big issue is whether Walker gets 50%,” Frankie texted. “He is close.”

(In a three-way race, Walker finished the night 48.3%, compared to Democrat Raphael Warnock’s 49.6. Because neither candidate got more than 50%, they’ll have a runoff in December. The Democrats have won the last two Georgia Senate Runoffs, in January 2021.)

Frankie also held out high hopes that a Republican would knock out incumbent Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in Virginia’s 7th congressional district. The seat was an expected GOP pickup if Republicans had a good night.

But it wasn’t long before NBC called the race for Spanberger. She ended up winning by four percentage points.

“The Democrats are winning a lot of toss-ups,” grumbled Frankie.

Later, returns from Western states began to arrive. In Colorado, incumbent GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert, a vocal accomplice of Donald Trump, appeared to be upset.

(That race was still undetermined Friday afternoon, with Boebert leading with about 1,100 votes. Also, Friday night, CNN and NBC News called the Arizona Senate race for incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. They still count. the votes in Nevada.)

“This might go down in history as the worst midterm performance by a party not in the White House,” I texted Frankie.

“Yes, and you can thank Trump,” he replied bitterly to the president who tried to overturn a free and fair election in 2020, because he lost it. On Wednesday, Frankie felt even more embittered towards the ex-president.

“I’m at the point where I want all of Trump’s candidates to lose,” Frankie texted. “Republicans will get pounded as long as he’s in the picture…Trump died after yesterday.”

Ding-dong, you know what that means. Frankie Four Eyes opened his peepers and learned a valuable lesson. Hey, it only took six years.

I will count that as progress!

Contact Subway Columnist Dan Casey at 981-3423 or [email protected]

Follow him on Twitter:

@dancaseysblog


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