Researchers predict a busy hurricane season this year


Researchers have put forward a second above-normal forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season.

Colorado State University researchers on Thursday predicted 19 named storms, including nine that turn into hurricanes, for the season that runs from June 1 to November 30. Four of the hurricanes could have winds exceeding 111 mph, experts say.

“Average sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern and central Atlantic are currently near average, while sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal,” they said. said the university researchers in a press release.

“We forecast an above-average likelihood for major hurricanes to make landfall along the continental United States coast and in the Caribbean.”

Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic recorded an average of 14.4 storms per season, with 7.2 reaching hurricane status and 3.2 per year classified as major storms. According to an AccuWeather forecast released last week, the university forecast is based, in part, on a climatological phenomenon known as La Nina, which can limit vertical wind shear in the atmosphere.

AccuWeather has predicted 16 to 20 named storms this year, with six to eight becoming hurricanes. Four to six of the storms could directly impact the United States, according to the prediction. The forecast also gave a “strong chance” that a system would form before the start of hurricane season on June 1.

The past two hurricane seasons have depleted storm name lists, with a record 30 named storms in 2020 and 21 named systems in 2021.

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