The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could be about to heat up.
The National Hurricane Center was tracking three tropical waves on Saturday afternoon. Two of them are unlikely — at this time — to become short-term tropical depressions.
The third wave, however, has been upgraded to a medium development probability, and it is the long-term predictions for this system that have generated a lot of speculation.
Some of the long-range computer models show that this wave, which was in the central Atlantic on Saturday afternoon, was developing into a tropical storm – or even a hurricane – and heading north into the Caribbean and, possibly, possibly near the United States. South East.
Disclaimer here – this is a model only. What ends up happening could be very different. The disturbance may not turn into a storm – or it may go in a completely different direction. There are a lot of “what ifs” that will need to be resolved.
But Saturday’s models definitely caught the attention of weather enthusiasts.
The hurricane center updated its tropical outlook Saturday afternoon and said a tropical depression could form by midweek.
Forecasters have raised the likelihood of development from 30% (low) to 40% (medium) over the next five days.
At this point, the system should still be east of the Leeward Islands, the gateway to the Caribbean.
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
The hurricane center is also monitoring not one but two other tropical waves for possible development.
One of them is already in the Caribbean.
The hurricane center said a trough of low pressure could develop in the northwest Caribbean early next week, and is expected to track west-northwest and into the Mexican peninsula. from Yucatan.
It has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next five days.
The third point to watch is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early next week and continue to move west across the Eastern Atlantic.
It also has a 20% chance of becoming depression within the next five days.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet lately (especially compared to recent years). The last named storm was Colin, which dissipated on July 3.
The next name on the 2022 storm list is Danielle.
The Atlantic hurricane season is generally the busiest from August to October with a climatological peak on September 10.
The last day of the season will be November 30.
NOAA forecast another busy season with 14 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.