The next named storm could be a monster hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico



Hurricane Fiona is the strongest hurricane of the Atlantic season, and now forecast models show a developing storm system could become a monstrous threat to the US Gulf Coast by next week.

A patch of disorganized activity a few hundred miles east of the eastern Caribbean Sea is likely to become the next tropical storm – named Hermine – in the coming days, possibly even hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

This small cluster of storms is getting the attention of meteorologists because US and European forecast models have consistently shown them turning into a tropical system and entering the Gulf of Mexico – although the models don’t have the best track records. in forecasting as far.

“The fact that almost every computer model is developing this into a westerly moving hurricane is absolutely concerning,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

The development is therefore likely – but where it goes is still a bit up for debate.

CNN Weather

“Well, there’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” Hurricane Center spokeswoman Maria Torres told CNN on Wednesday. “But yeah, that’s something we’re watching and watching closely as we head into the weekend and into the start of next week.”

Over the next few days, the disturbance is expected to move west-northwest across the southern Windward Islands – on the eastern edge of the Caribbean – then move towards the central Caribbean Sea later. in the week, the hurricane center announced Wednesday morning.

At the end of next week, both models show the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Use the slider to move left and right to see the difference between the US weather forecast model (left) and the European weather forecast model (right). Both model runs from Wednesday morning show a storm in the Gulf next week, which has meteorologists worried.

On Wednesday morning, the US model showed the storm as a significant and possibly major hurricane. It showed that it made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on September 30. The European model had it hit the southern part of Florida a day earlier – but as a much smaller storm, although almost as intense.

By Thursday morning, the model’s runs had changed. The European pattern is more like Wednesday’s US pattern, more intense and touching higher up the west coast of Florida. He still predicts a faster storm, which means he would land on September 29.

Thursday morning’s updated US model shows a much slower storm. It circles in the Gulf of Mexico for days, grows bigger and then makes landfall in Louisiana on Sunday.

Conditions in the Gulf are favorable for the system to strengthen, and it will do so very quickly, Torres told CNN.

It was a slow start to what was expected to be an above average hurricane season. Only one storm made landfall in US territory, and no hurricanes made landfall or threatened the contiguous United States.

Now, a week after the peak of hurricane season, the tropics appear to have woken up and forecasters fear people have let their guard down.

“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season has picked up speed quickly,” tweeted Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach.

“People tend to let their guard down and think, oh, yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said. “But in reality, the season continues. We are still in September; we still have October. Anything that forms over the Atlantic or the Caribbean is something we need to watch very closely.

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

Four times a day, the US forecast model and the European model spit out an updated forecast. And after each race, the meteorologists will tweet what they think will happen.

Anyway, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast, pay attention and watch what the National Hurricane Center says once the storm is strong enough to be named. The trail it issues at that time will give an increasingly accurate indication of what is most likely to happen.

Source link


Comments are closed.