On June 6, a tropical depression dumped nearly a foot of water in southern Florida; Brickell Avenue, where I live, was flooded in many parts. Tourists were stranded by rains for several days.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The classification system classifies weather events of increasing intensity as tropical depressions, tropical storms, and Category 1 to 5 hurricanes – based on maximum sustained wind speeds, but not reflecting the amount or intensity of precipitation.
Yet rains and floods often cause more damage than wind, with destruction often outside the cone of a hurricane of greatest intensity, and even extending far beyond the areas most frequently hit by storms. hurricanes.
When you travel, you can’t be sure when storms will hit, but you need to be aware when planning so you can best adapt if something goes wrong.
One way to avoid a ruined vacation is to check the weather forecast before making any decisions, especially if you are traveling in the hurricane zone or any area where weather issues are most likely to affect your trip.
NOAA seasonal forecast for 2022 is for overall Atlantic hurricane activity and does not predict the number of storms that will pass near or over land. For the seventh year in a row, NOAA predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. the normal.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, although storms may increasingly develop earlier or later. NOAA predicts 14 to 21 named storms, a category that includes all tropical cyclones with top winds of at least 39 miles per hour.
Six to 10 of those storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Three to six of them are expected to reach Category 3 or higher, with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour
Factors that influence NOAA predictions:
— The girl, a weather pattern that has been in place since 2020 and is expected to persist throughout the hurricane season, maintaining conditions conducive to hurricane formation.
— A strong West African monsoon, which favors the development of areas of low atmospheric pressure called East African waves.
—Tropical Atlantic trade winds are weaker than average, allowing a developing storm to develop more easily without being torn apart by wind shear.
— Unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean this summer. Storms gain strength as they pass over warm water.
With climate change upon us, including predictions of more frequent and more powerful storms, travelers are advised to adapt their plans to reflect any natural events that may occur. And with that, we can be satisfied that we did our best in the face of the new normal and hopefully enjoy storm-free travel.