Will a typhoon convince you to put on your winter tires?

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Will a typhoon convince you to put on your winter tires?

The actions of a single storm over 10,000 kilometers are about to influence your decisions about installing winter tires.

I’ll prove it here. The storm, none other than Typhoon Malou, brought gusts of 200 km / h off the western Pacific Ocean. But surface winds are not the problem. Rather, it is the typhoon butterfly effect that will amplify and reinforce an impending model change across Canada.

The typhoon curvature theory, in its essence, often beats a computer model for forecasting. It’s a complicated dance: when the residual energy of the typhoon moves towards the top of the troposphere, the lowest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, it changes the position of the jet stream.

Typhoon humidity

Typhoon humidity

The only disturbance, the energy of the typhoon, although seemingly just a chaotic ripple, can spread and create impacts downstream, and this transformation is taking center stage across Canada.

THE WEST

Some subtropical humidity causes early fanfare in the west, amplifying a lean, albeit very high, ridge of high pressure across British Columbia, extending into the Arctic. This will once again pump warm air through Nunavut, a trend since the end of September.

In BC you’ll have a dry, northerly current – so pockets of cold air will be lurking for Halloween, but things heat up during the first week of November.

Since this is a thin high pressure ridge, Pacific storms will tend to deal with it quickly, with a storm track bursting through November.

In the Prairies, you will taste a cocktail of modified Siberian and Arctic air. It’s not nature’s coldest mix, but enough to remind us that the coldest days of winter are just around the corner. The cold air will not stay for a significant amount of time; we have pumped too much heat into northern Canada for this to become a reality.

October Temperature anomaly

October Temperature anomaly

BALLAST

The cold oozing from northern Canada – which will slide further southeast towards the Great Lakes next week, aided by the increased amplification with the energy of our typhoon.

During the first week of November, this cold air mass will migrate over the Great Lakes, causing wet, lake-like snow. And, with the heat of the water temperatures, it will act as a fuse to trigger the necessary instability.

Temperature model

Temperature model

In Quebec, cooler air is also expected, with temperatures dropping into the lower numbers, hitting the threshold to switch to more reliable winter rubber.

Atlantic Canada, the warm Atlantic Ocean, and the gentle southerly flow may have created a bit of complacency, and although November starts out mild, the colder air will sometimes move east.

We have depleted the availability of arctic air in northern Canada by the end of next week, so no cold air outbreak is imminent after next week.

But may the seemingly harmless typhoon in the Western Pacific be this sweet reminder to turn on your winter tires. It will be the catalyst that will help bring home the coldest air mass of the season.


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